The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and the fiftieth anniversary of Sputnik.

نویسندگان

  • Arthur P Cracknell
  • Costas A Varotsos
چکیده

Much has been made of the idea of consensus in the development of the IPCC's role since it was set up in 1988 by WMO, the World Meteorological Oganisation, and UNEP, the United Nations Environment Progamme. The IPCC's scientific assessment involves studying the output from various climate models as well as various historical records of atmospheric and marine data. It is well known that the chaotic character of the atmospheric dynamics [e.g. 1–3] limits the validity of long-term weather forecasts to one or two weeks. However, it is possible to consider climate projections, that is, to develop scenarios of probable climate changes due to the predicted continuing growth of the concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. The basic method to make such scenarios tangible involves the use of numerical climate models that simulate interactive processes in the climatic system 'atmosphere-ocean-land surface-cryosphere-biosphere'. Because there are many such models, the serious difficulty arises as to which is the best model to choose and the IPCC attempts to draw the most reliable conclusions from the outputs of all the available models. This difficulty becomes much more serious when taking into account the fact that big uncertainties in fundamental climate-forming factors (e.g. melting of the ice sheets, carbon-cycle feedbacks, the role of clouds, biogeochemical cycles) still remain. In order to reduce the level of existing uncertainties, the modeling of nature-society interaction is urgently required with long-term, non-linear changes in climate system taken into account [4].

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عنوان ژورنال:
  • Environmental science and pollution research international

دوره 14 6  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2007